The sceptical position bundles three claims: LLMs don't discover physics; AI won't change the rate of quantum-computer engineering; no LLM-driven system has produced anything physical in materials or physics. Every item below states what was built, who checked it and what the caveat is. Set the filter to your own test and count what survives.
Everything
no filter 22 of 22 items survivePick a test
The strict test, one condition at a time
Only items passing the filter are plotted. Not cumulative; quiet months sit at zero.
Scored as on the math seismograph, index = 2.5 × P × H × W × C × (1 + log₁₀ n): P physicality 0–10, H horizon (now 1.0, years 0.7, decades 0.4, someday 0.15), W weight 1–4, C confidence 0–1, n = 1 for every item here. The y-axis keeps the unfiltered scale, so tightening the test flattens the trace rather than rescaling it.
What was claimed
Caveat